Evolution of Professional Project Management

We are indeed in interesting times regarding the theory of project management. On one hand it is now documented that a disciplined process methodology yields value in regards to the resulting budget, schedule and functionality. However, there remains great conflict among theorists and practitioners over what type of methodology and how to execute it. On top of this, technology continues to bring new challenges to the management process, such that it is often difficult to repeat one approach multiple times. So, the academic challenge is to best explore this subject and distill nuggets of information that have stood the test of time and then attempt to predict the next wave of technical discontinuity. Let's take a quick look at some of the not too distant previous decade stage issues that this has experienced. The stages outlined below are somewhat arbitrarily grouped, but are designed to highlight some of the driving factors that have changed the project management landscape.

The Initial Conceptual Stage

We can trace the modern roots of project management back to the early 1900's into the Scientific Management revolution with Frederick Taylor, Frank and Lillian Gilbreth, and Henry Gantt. However, it was not until the post-WWII era that these early pioneer theories began to be studied and used in any visible manner. Many credit the activities surrounding the successful design and implementation of the U.S. Navy Polaris submarine project as the beginning of broad acceptance of a rigorous model-based approach to project management. This was reflected in the well known PERT and critical path network modeling techniques which have been used extensively in the DOD and construction industries through the 1950s and 1960s. These early model usages were unable to spread readily because the underlying mechanics were too complex to do manually and computers were not generally available to the masses. Further proliferation of these planning and control methodologies would have to wait until low cost processing technology removed this barrier.

Stage II

The 1970s and 1980s brought tremendous expansion in hardware and software technology offerings with the introduction of minicomputers and PCs. Along with this trend came increasingly complex system and information architecture development projects. The information technology (IT) system development processes were being nudged towards a scientific or engineering approach and other industries began to mature their management processes along the classical model lines. Through all of this the central IT organizations were struggling with their expanding user groups to satisfy what seemed like insatiable demand for information and their related systems. For one living through this era it seemed like little conceptual project management theory progress was made as the technology was quickly moving from a highly controlled central mainframe hardware environment to a more distributed environment with a user "do it myself" mentality. Through this evolution academic organizations published concepts, theories, and management strategies that would have moved the discipline further along, but the outside organizations for the most part were not able to sell these disciplined processes to their constituency. Instead, the focus began to move toward speed of delivery and use of purchased software.

Stage III

In many ways the 1990's could be described as a period of maturation and proliferation of information tools and user literacy. PCs and the internet became household words, but neither of these trends improved the concept of discipline. Desktop tools such as Microsoft's Excel and Access turned millions of computer aficionados into programmers. Few would argue that the majority of such efforts would not be characterized as following what we now know as project management. In fact, the word "prototyping" became popular as speed was the key mission. The idea here was to produce a working product as quickly as possible and worry about design and documentation later. It often never arrived!

A second evolutionary thread emerging during this period was the further maturation and acceptance of purchased software. Major custom designed mission critical systems were being replaced by purchased software as a promised way to cut IT expenditures. Names such as SAP, Peoplesoft, Oracle, J.D. Edwards, Lawson, and others became familiar terms. In many cases this "silver bullet" solution failed to materialize and the results sometimes bordered on catastrophic. Because these projects were so large, attempts were made to manage them in a professional way and yet they too overran budgets and schedules. Something was clearly not working right! Possibly the good news from this was that metrics related to project execution began to be recognized as a requirement and senior management saw how ugly the overall project management situation was. Prior to this phase the prevailing lack of computer literacy by management and the lack of project status metrics allowed the IT community to escape the critical control eyes of high level management. It was now clear that both of these elements, user literacy and tracking metrics, were critical prerequisite components that must be in place prior to embracing the rigor of a true project management world. In other words, if you don't believe that a disciplined management approach does something for you, it is judged to just be extra overhead that adds cost for no benefit. By the latter part of the 1990's there was growing management recognition that IT could not be allowed to go uncontrolled any longer. Also, IT costs had risen to the point that it was now a major component of the capital budget in many organizations. Similar recognition of the need for a more mature management approach to projects began to pervade most industries. Based on these factors the stage was set for the current trends. Where these trends will eventually end up is subjective, but the trends themselves are pretty clear. We'll call this Stage IV.

Stage IV

The period of 2000 through 2010 will not be different in many ways from that briefly described above. That is, new hardware, software and telecommunications technology will continue to open up new avenues for use of technology and users will continue to become more literate in using the technology. With this as a base predictive thesis we add a second trend. As the global concept becomes a reality we are recognizing the existence of cheap foreign labor sources and that is clearly leading to increased outsourcing of all types of activity in the manufacturing and technology sectors. Use of foreign outsourcing was marginally successful during the 1990's, but it is now back again with some new flavors. One significant barrier has been reduced with the improved functionality and cost of telecommunications, which has in turn opened up new opportunities for geographically distributing the support role. One of these trends is the emergence of niche vendors who do one thing very well. These vendors are often able to take an entire business process offshore at less cost than it could be operated internally. The number and scope of such activities continues to increase. A couple of common names for these type vendors are hosters and Application Service Providers (ASP). These vendors can be successful in the marketplace as a result of their economies of scale and their specialized skill level. There is every reason to predict that this trend will continue and new technologies will emerge to make them more efficient. However, we also need to recognize that failures in this activity will dramatically increase the risk management activities beyond what would have occurred in a purely internal operational environment. If a foreign vendor fails it would have a significant impact to the organization. This class of activity represents a new type of challenge for the project management process.

A related trend is for outsourced vendors of various types to reside in another country--unheard of as little as five years ago. Today, cheap foreign labor and reliable telecommunications has opened the door for service providers in places such as India, China, Russia and others. Each of these cultures brings new challenges to the contemporary project manager.

Inside of the modern organization it is being increasingly recognized that project management is about more than technology. Project success is clearly driven by people. Thus, even in the traditional setting project management will need to change its focus more to this human side of the equation. In addition, the time to complete such initiatives will be a driver for success. In such an environment there is pressure here to throw away some of the risk management activities and move faster through the process. How to do that and still hit the right target remains one of the complex challenges of this period. It is going to be necessary to find a proper blend of pre-definition versus speed in order to integrate these business drivers.

Collectively, all of the pressures for change in approach impinge on the subject of project management. Speed of delivery, increased use of purchased software, outsourced service providers, and use of foreign resources each impact much of the current thinking about how to manage the underlying initiatives. In this new role, we will require a different set of tools and strategies to successfully navigate these initiatives. So, the subject of project management can not be simply looked at as a cook book of tools. The subject remains one of great conflict within the project domain as stakeholders continue to have diverging views and goals as to what success looks like. In order to survive this next period the new manager has got to understand the forces at work and must evolve to best fit these forces. Past success rates will not be acceptable.